Alright so last Thursday I got this random idea while watching NBA highlights – wanted to figure out which new players might crack the all-time 3-point shooter list someday. Sounded simple at first. Yeah, right.
The Dumb Starting Point
Grabbed my laptop around midnight thinking “how hard could this be?” Pulled up NBA stats site immediately. Searched “best 3pt shooters current season” like an idiot. First problem popped up in five minutes: some players take way more shots than others, so just looking at made shots wouldn’t work. Needed percentage AND volume. Great.
Started making coffee. Realized I should compare these new guys with legends like Ray Allen. Opened another tab for career stats. More coffee.
The Spreadsheet Nightmare
Dumped all the data into Google Sheets next morning. Looked like alphabet soup mixed with numbers. Had to:
- Filter only guards and small forwards (sorry big men)
- Eliminate anyone playing less than 3 seasons
- Calculate 3PA per game manually because the damn sheet wouldn’t sort properly
Suddenly remembered Steph Curry exists. Facepalmed hard. Had to redo everything adding his prime years for context. Keyboard nearly flew out the window when Excel froze with all the formulas running.
Unexpected Curveballs
Noticed weird stuff halfway through:
- Some rookies shot 45% but only took one three per game – basically useless data
- Older vets had great percentages but played 5 minutes per game
- One guy’s stats disappeared completely when I filtered seasons – took me 20 minutes to realize I’d misspelled his name
Decided to focus on players averaging at least 2.5 makes per game this season. Reduced the list from 50+ names to 15. Still too many.
The “Aha” Disaster
Tried projecting career trajectories based on first three seasons. Realized how dumb that was when I saw Klay Thompson’s early numbers versus now. Grabbed hair with both hands.
Ended up making separate lists:
- Volume Monsters: Guys launching 8+ per game already
- Laser Beams: Shooting over 40% on decent attempts
- Wildcards: Second-year players with weirdly improving numbers
Final Tally & Facepalm
After 2 wasted hours cross-referencing with age and team systems, found three legit candidates. Then discovered NBA changed the dang three-point line distance twice in the last decade. Comparison got even messier. Almost threw the laptop.
Conclusion? Maybe two of the current young guns might touch top 10 if they:
- Stay healthy (big if)
- Keep taking 8+ attempts nightly
- Don’t fall off a cliff after age 30
And yeah Steph’s still out there breaking records. Whole exercise felt pointless afterward. But hey, at least I learned how to use pivot tables better. Silver linings whatever.
