Okay, so, I was looking into this “PECOTA projections” thing for 2023. I heard it’s kinda like trying to see the future in baseball, but for individual players, right? Well, I started digging into this thing, and it turns out it’s kinda cool and quite complicated.
First, I started reading whatever I could find on the internet. Found some bits about how PECOTA does projections for stolen bases and something about “rescaling”. I didn’t even know what rescaling was at first. I guess it’s about adjusting the numbers to make sense?
Then, I tried to understand how this PECOTA thing actually works. It’s all about looking at what players did in the past, like a three-year window, I found. So, I started checking some player stats from the last few years, trying to see any patterns. It was a bit overwhelming, to be honest, with all those numbers. I mean, we’re talking about ages, park effects, league effects, and a bunch of other things.
I also found out about this tool, the “Automated SGP Ranking Tool”, and learned it could help in converting different projection sets like “Steamer” or “The Bat”. Sounded handy, although I didn’t have much of a clue about these other sets.
Next, I tried to do some projections myself. I picked a few players and looked at their stats from, like, ages 35–37. Then, I tried to compare them with similar players from the past. It felt a bit like being a detective, but with baseball stats instead of clues.
Getting Into The Weeds
I started messing around with some numbers. Say a player hit a two-run homer. I learned that in a standard points league, that’s seven points – one for the run and six for the homer, I guess. It was starting to make a little more sense.
- Tried to compare stats of similar age groups.
- Figured out the points for home runs in standard leagues.
- Realized that park and league effects really matter.
After a while, I started to get a feel for it. It’s not just about who hits the most home runs or steals the most bases. It’s a lot more complicated than that. You gotta look at the whole picture, the player’s history, where they play, and all that stuff.
Honestly, I still don’t get it completely, but it was fun messing around with the numbers and trying to predict how players will do this year. I’m not gonna be a professional forecaster or anything, but it’s pretty interesting to see how these PECOTA projections work.
So, that’s my little adventure with PECOTA for 2023. It’s a bit of a rabbit hole, but if you’re into baseball and numbers, you might find it as interesting as I did. Just be prepared to spend some time figuring it all out!
