Man, this question was buggin’ me after watchin’ the Warriors game last week. Saw Draymond get tossed early, figured they were cooked, but somehow they scrapped out a win. Got me thinkin’ – does kickin’ out your star player actually fire up the team? Or just ruin your chances?
The Spark & The Headache
Started simple, right? Wanna see if teams play better or worse after an ejection. Grabbed coffee Sunday mornin’, fired up my laptop. First hurdle: finding decent data. Thought * stats would have it, no luck. Scraped my brain, remembered some play-by-play APIs might track it. Dug into a couple, felt like diggin’ a ditch with a spoon. Took forever just to get a basic list – player, team, ejection time, final score. Messy. Real messy. Copy-pasted ’til my fingers hurt.
Grunt Work & First Results
Had this ugly spreadsheet: ejected player, ejection quarter, ejection minute, final score… but needed more. What about the score at the time they got tossed? Back to the play-by-play mines I went. Another hour lost, just typing numbers.
Finally got a rough win-loss count. Before crunchin’ deeper stats, just eyeballed it. Teams lost more often after an ejection? Wait, that didn’t feel right after that Warriors game I saw. Panic started creepin’ in. Did I mess up the data? Was this whole thing pointless?
- Games With Ejection: Lost about 60%
- Games Without: Split pretty even, 50-50
Felt stupid. Maybe gettin’ kicked out really does doom the team. Almost quit right there.
The Deep Dive That Saved It
Shoved my phone away, grabbed more coffee – black, strong. Said screw it, gotta look deeper. Who got ejected? Was it a star or some bench guy nobody cares about? Made a new column: “Star Player?” Based on All-Star appearances or pure team importance, like if Steph Curry gets tossed, yeah, that’s a star. Hardly scientific, just my gut feelin’.
Crammed the numbers into my basic stats tool. Ran a simple comparison: win rate after star ejection vs. bench ejection.
- Star Player Ejected: Team won about 55% of the time? Wait, WHAT?
- Bench Player Ejected: Team won only 35% of the time?
Spilled my coffee. Read it again. Made NO SENSE. How does losing your best guy help? Ran the numbers three times. Kept comin’ back positive for the stars gettin’ booted. Teams seemed to win more when stars got the early shower.
The “Oh, Right…” Factor
Sat starin’ at the screen. Felt like I missed somethin’ big. Then it hit me: momentum and psychology. That Warriors game! Team looked dead before Draymond got tossed. After? Pure fire. Guys steppin’ up. Opponents maybe gettin’ comfortable? Plus, stars often get frustrated before they snap – maybe they were playin’ like crap already, messin’ up the flow. Gettin’ ’em out stops the bleeding. For bench guys? Getting tossed might just hurt depth or foul rotations, no fire lit.
Also checked suspensions later – totally different story. Suspension means planned absence, team adjusts. Ejection is instant shock. Gotta be part of the juice.
The Bottom Line (For Now)
Way more complicated than I thought. Maybe kickin’ out a star under specific chaos can jolt the team awake, like a slap in the face. Bench guys gettin’ tossed? Usually just a raw deal hurts the team. Makes you wonder about locker room vibes, coachin’ reactions… felt like openin’ a can of worms. This is only the start, gotta dig deeper on context. But hey, that surprise finding? That’s why I do this crap.
