Alright, so the other day I was trying to figure out how to predict NBA player points. I’ve been messing around with fantasy basketball for a while now, and let me tell you, it’s a real pain trying to guess who’s gonna go off on any given night.
So, I started by just looking around to see what other people were doing. I found a bunch of places talking about daily fantasy sports projections and all that jazz. Seems like everyone and their mother has some sort of system, you know? But most of these places, they make you pay for their “expert” advice, right? Not exactly my style.
I did see something interesting about DraftEdge and their NBA Player Prop Projections. They make it sound like they’ve got some secret sauce, mixing data and analytics to come up with their predictions. Sounds fancy, but again, probably not free.
Then there were a few sites that listed some projections for free. I saw something about DraftKings and how they update their stuff multiple times a day. That’s pretty cool, I guess. They even had live odds, which is neat if you’re into that betting stuff. Not really my cup of tea, though, too much risk for me.
Another site mentioned that they use “dozens of metrics” to make their own predictions. That sounds like a lot of work, honestly. I mean, I’m just trying to get a decent idea of who’s going to score some points, not become a data scientist.
And then, get this, I even saw some warnings about gambling problems at the bottom of one of these pages. They were like, “If you’re in MA, call this number…” or something like that. Kind of a downer, right? I mean, I’m just trying to have some fun with fantasy basketball, not ruin my life.
So, after seeing all that, here’s what I ended up doing:
- First, I grabbed a list of all the games for the day. You can find that anywhere, like on the official NBA site or any sports news site.
- Then, I started looking at each player’s recent stats. I’m talking about points per game, minutes played, and maybe even their field goal percentage. Just to get a feel for how they’ve been performing lately.
- Next, I checked if any players were injured or if there was any news that might affect their playing time. You don’t want to pick a guy who’s not even going to play, right?
- After that, I took a quick look at the opposing team’s defense. Are they good at stopping players from scoring? Or are they kind of a sieve? That can make a big difference.
- Finally, I kind of just went with my gut. I mean, after looking at all that stuff, you start to get a sense of who might have a good game.
It’s not perfect, but it’s a heck of a lot better than just picking names out of a hat. And the best part is, it’s free! I’m not paying some “expert” for advice that might not even be any good.
So yeah, that’s my little system for predicting NBA player points. It’s not rocket science, but it works for me. Maybe it’ll work for you too. Give it a shot and let me know what you think!
